Daily hourly forecasts: Suncast leads the new era of renewable energies

Last year, we implemented the sending of forecasts via API months before the deadline, and this year we are gradually incorporating the changes”, said Suncast’s CTO.

Under the update of Title 2-9 “Solar or Wind Energy Coordination” of the Technical Standard for Coordination and Operation of the National Electrical System, Programming and Operation Chapter, from now on referred to as TS (technical standard), the Coordinador Eléctrico Nacional announced the reinforcement of the requirements applicable to the country’s solar and wind energy power plants. From now on, the facilities must submit hourly updated generation forecasts, 365 days a year, to optimize the programming of the operation of the national electrical system.

As provided in Title 2-9 of the new TS, the coordinated power plants must submit hourly forecasts with a horizon of 48 hours, starting from the hour following their submission. Each forecast must include exceedance probability values of at least 25%, 50%, and 75% for every hour forecasted. Additionally, every day before 08:00, it is required to submit a second forecast extended to 240 hours — equivalent of 10 days — following the same probabilistic criterion.

The Coordinador specified that the forecasts must not only include the availability of solar or wind energy resources, but also the possible operational constraints of the generation and transmission infrastructure, such as scheduled maintenance or shutdowns, which could affect the Sistema Eléctrico Nacional's (SEN) energy supply. However, restrictions imposed by the Coordinador, such as network congestion or demand adjustments, should not be considered.

H2News asked Pedro Correa, Suncast’s Chief Technology Officer, about the new requirements. “Suncast has shown its ability to adapt to new regulations with great anticipation on several occasions. Last year, we implemented the sending of forecasts via API months before the deadline, and this year we are gradually incorporating the changes to meet the due date set by the TS easily”, said Correa.

In 2024, Suncast developed a specific tool to record equipment malfunctions, including failures or scheduled maintenance, information which is directly integrated into the forecasting models. "This information is directly integrated into our forecasting models, allowing the submissions to CEN to show actual operating constraints accurately. Therefore, Suncast's forecasts comply with this requirement already", explained the company’s CTO.

An important point set on the standard refers to power plants that have storage systems, whose forecasts must exclusively indicate the generation derived from the primary variable resource, without including the effect of energy storage.

Among the most relevant changes are the elimination of the 12-hour wind energy forecasts and short-term ramp predictions, which will be covered by the requirement for hourly updates. Also, the use of the API channel on the Portal de Pronósticos as the main source of data submission is prioritized, with the SFTP protocol as a transitory backup during implementation.

Regarding the schedule, the files must be sent within a set time frame: not 15 minutes before nor 5 minutes after the set hour.

Coordinated generating companies have a 180-day deadline — starting from the 2nd of April, when the Diario Oficial published the standard — to fully comply with the new regulations. The implementation’s deadline is on the 29th of September of 2025.

“At Suncast, we see these changes heading in the right direction because they will allow for more efficient and anticipatory planning of the Sistema Eléctrico Nacional, facilitating a safer and more reliable integration of renewable energies”, concluded Correa.